The renewal of talks is becoming more urgent as Ethiopia and Sudan are already involved in a low-level conflict on its disputed border at al-Fashqa.
According to some of our sources involved in previous rounds of GERD talks, the UAE’s offer to mediate may be the only viable solution to avoid a drastic escalation toward military conflict in the Horn of Africa. The UAE’s offer of mediation comes at a time of tense relations between the three main parties in the Blue Nile dispute, while the UAE has strong relations with Ethiopia, as well as Sudan and Egypt. On 13 January, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) offered to facilitate the stalled talks over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Dam (GERD). A new US administration and potential mediation by the UAE will play a critical role in coming months to avoid another war in the Horn of Africa, even while the Tigray conflict still simmers and risks destabilising the whole region. The dam is also at the centre of a renewed ethnic conflict that threatens to spill over from the 2020 Tigray War. A violent dispute over land rights at the Black Nile in Sudan risks escalating nationalism and warmongering over a hydropower dam at the Blue Nile in Ethiopia.
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